From hybrid shadows to open skies at the edge of war

The air over Europe feels charged with menace. In recent months, a pattern of drone incursions, fighter jet provocations, and speculative predictions of a coming global war have unsettled policymakers and publics alike. Danish airports shuttered by unmanned aerial vehicles, Russian MiG-31s streaking into Estonian skies, and warnings, some credible, others less so, that and all-out World War III could erupt as soon as November 2025 create an atmosphere of heightened anxiety.

My novel The Finding-Itihad (2020) situated the pandemic, NATO maneuvers, and the specter of a “third hybrid world war” within a fictional narrative that resonates powerfully with the present moment. Taken together, fact and fiction tell a story of blurred lines between peace and war, truth and disinformation, anticipation and reality.

Recent events across northern Europe illustrate the disruptive potential of drones. Danish authorities were forced to close multiple airports after unidentified UAVs appeared in restricted airspace. Police described the operators as “capable,” suggesting deliberate incursions rather than accidents. In Copenhagen, flights halted amid growing fears that the drones were part of a coordinated “hybrid attack.”

Poland has faced similar intrusions. In September 2025, nearly two dozen drones crossed from Russia into Polish territory. Several were intercepted, but others penetrated deep into NATO airspace, prompting Warsaw to invoke Article 4 of the alliance treaty and demand urgent consultations. The drones caused no direct damage, yet their strategic effect was profound: they demonstrated NATO’s vulnerability and the asymmetry of modern warfare, where cheap technology can force expensive countermeasures.

In The Finding-Itihad, this phenomenon is anticipated through reflections on hybrid war, where pandemics, economic shocks, and technological incursions form part of a seamless battlefield. In one passage I described COVID-19 as a “camouflage screen” in a “third hybrid world war in progress,” framing disruption itself as a weapon.

Russian jets on the edge

If drones represent the new, fighter jets symbolize the old yet equally dangerous. On September 19, 2025, Estonia reported that three Russian MiG-31 fighters entered its airspace over the Baltic Sea. With transponders off and no flight plans filed, the jets ignored communications until NATO scrambled Italian F-35s to escort them out. The violation lasted twelve minutes but reverberated far longer. Estonia denounced it as a “brazen” act, invoked Article 4, and pressed NATO for a unified response.

Russia denied wrongdoing, claiming its aircraft remained in international airspace. This ambiguity is part of the strategy: probing defenses, creating uncertainty, and forcing NATO to respond while stopping short of outright war.

This too echoes the novel, where references to NATO’s Defender Europe 2020 exercise , “a massive drill for an all-out war” involving 37,000 troops, highlight how maneuvers and air activity are both preparation and provocation. The line between exercise and escalation is perilously thin.

Predictions and prophecies

Speculation about an imminent world war has intensified. On lesser-known websites, claims circulate that NATO generals have predicted a Russian assault for November 3, 2025. No mainstream source has confirmed such a forecast, yet the rumors thrive. They tap into collective unease, and in an environment of drones and jets, even unfounded predictions acquire weight.

In The Finding-Itihad, the characters wrestle with similar questions: “Am I going to escape from WWIII or will I get stuck in it?” one asks. Elsewhere, messages are exchanged wondering if “WWIII has started.” The fictional voice captures the very uncertainty that today’s disinformation and speculation exploit. The idea of an unavoidable war is both a narrative device and a political danger because if people believe war is inevitable, their actions may hasten it.

The core concept tying these episodes together is hybrid warfare. Unlike traditional conflict, hybrid war blends military force with cyberattacks, disinformation, economic manipulation, and public health crises. Its goal is less to destroy than to destabilize, erode trust, and sow fear.

In Denmark, drones coincided with cyberattacks on airport systems. In Poland, UAVs accompanied broader tensions on the Belarusian border. In The Finding-Itihad, COVID-19 is portrayed as a psyop, “one of the largest psychological warfare operations in contemporary history.” The novel suggests the pandemic was less a biological attack than a cover for a broader offensive, a notion that aligns with real-world concerns that crises are exploited as opportunities for hybrid aggression. By embedding these themes in fiction, the novel captures a truth often missed in policy documents: hybrid war is as much about perception and psychology as about weapons and borders.

Escalation risks

Whether through drones, jets, or disinformation, the escalation ladder is always present. An unmanned vehicle colliding with a passenger jet, a fighter pilot misjudging an intercept, or a viral rumor sparking panic could all lead to unintended consequences. NATO must balance deterrence with restraint, ensuring readiness without triggering confrontation.

Here literature again offers perspective. In The Finding-Itihad, World War III is not depicted as a single dramatic moment but as a creeping condition, unfolding unnoticed until it is already upon us. The hybrid war, the novel suggests, may already have started, only history will tell when it truly began.

What we are witnessing in late 2025 is not the subtle, deniable hybrid war that analysts once debated. The hybrid dimension is still present, disinformation, cyber intrusions, psychological operations, but it no longer defines the conflict. Today’s confrontations are overt, visible, kinetic: drones swarming over NATO airports, Russian fighters intruding into allied airspace, entire governments invoking Article 4.

This shift matters. Five years ago, the signs were already there. By mid-2019 and especially in early 2020, the alarm bell was being rung: large-scale military drills, sudden troop deployments, the exploitation of the pandemic as psychological warfare. Those warnings were often dismissed as alarmist. They were not. They were the first notes of a symphony that has now grown deafening.

I wrote this article for all those who were unaware, or unwilling to see at the time. What was once hybrid and hidden is now brazen and undeniable. The task before Europe and its allies is to recognize how far the conflict has already shifted, and to act with clarity before brinkmanship hardens into open war.